Spatial and Socioeconomic Distributions of Electricity-temperature Sensitivities in the Los Angeles Metropolitan Region

Urban regions represent approximately 80% of the U.S. population and are therefore an important target for energy efficiency and power grid reliability interventions due to their large energy footprint. Although global climate change and urban heat islands are contributing to urban warming, we lack knowledge about how electricity consumption in cities is affected by climate, and how potential future changes will affect various populations based on variables such as geospatial location and socio-economic demographics. In this study, we compute the sensitivity of residential electricity use to ambient temperature using (1) hourly smart meter data records of household electricity usage for over 200,000 residential homes across the Los Angeles Metropolitan Region, (2) observations of hourly ambient temperature. A segmented linear regression model is applied to identify stationary point temperature (i.e. the ambient temperature at which homes start using air conditioning) and electricity-temperature sensitivities (i.e. additional electricity consumed as a response to unit ambient temperature rise) in order to describe the relationship between residential electricity consumption and ambient temperature. A methodology to estimate air conditioner saturation rates across Southern California, relying on electricity and climate data alone, is also developed. To the authors' knowledge, this analysis is the first to report electricity-temperature sensitivities across multiple climate zones in Southern California with high spatial resolution (census track level). Results indicate that after clustering by climate zones to adjust for climate variability, electricity consumption in highly affluent regions show higher sensitivities to changes in temperature than their less-affluent counterparts. Results of the air conditioning saturation study correspond closely with California's Residential Appliance Saturation Study. Hence this new methodology offers a higher resolution insight into AC saturation rates in Southern California and provides hypotheses to explain variations in sensitivity. Knowledge gleaned from this study will aid in the development of more equitable climate adaptation plans and potential energy conservation strategies for electricity systems in urban areas.