Shift in Seasonal Climate Patterns Likely to Impact Residential Energy Consumption in the United States

We use a highly-resolved ensemble of downscaled climate simulations of historical and near-term future climate, and observed empirical relationships between meteorological observations and household energy consumption to provide one of the most detailed estimates for future changes in the United States residential energy demand in response to increase in radiative forcing. Our results indicate that more intense and prolonged summer like conditions will drive an increase in the electricity demand while a shorter and milder cold season will reduce natural gas demand. The environment conditions that favor more cooling degree days in summer and reduce heating degree days in winter are driven by changes in daily maximum temperatures and daily minimum temperatures in the respective seasons. The projected changes exhibit important regional variations with net increase in energy cost in relatively warmer counties in the south and net decrease in energy cost in the counties across the United States that experience significant cold season snow in the present time. These projected changes in energy demand and cost have implications for future energy planning and cost management.