Real-time operational aftershock forecasting in Japan
Abstract
Aftershock forecasting is an important post-earthquake scientific response to reduce the seismic risks after a main shock. We have recently developed and implemented a real-time system for aftershock forecasting in Japan. The system uses, as the real-time input, the High-Sensitivity Seismograph Network automatic hypocenter catalog of the National Research Institute for Earth Science and Disaster Resilience, where earthquakes are automatically detected and located in real-time, and provides rapid evaluation of time-dependent aftershock probabilities from a few hours to days after a main shock. Here, we describe an overview of the system and demonstrate its performances for recent M6-class earthquakes in Japan that occurred during the operation of the system. We also present results on a retrospective aftershock forecasting experiment for M7-class inland earthquakes in Japan to examine the real-time ability to forecast large earthquakes.
Reference: [1] T. Omi, Y. Ogata, Y. Hirata, and K. Aihara, "Forecasting large aftershocks within one day after the main shock", Scientific Reports 3, 2218 (2013). [2] T. Omi, Y. Ogata, K. Shiomi, B. Enescu, K. Sawazaki, and K. Aihara, "Automatic aftershock forecasting: A test using real-time seismicity data in Japan", Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America 106, 2450 (2016). [3] T. Omi, Y. Ogata, K. Shiomi, B. Enescu, K. Sawazaki, and K. Aihara, "Implementation of a real-time system for automatic aftershock forecasting in Japan", (submitted).- Publication:
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AGU Fall Meeting Abstracts
- Pub Date:
- December 2018
- Bibcode:
- 2018AGUFM.S33E0625O
- Keywords:
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- 4315 Monitoring;
- forecasting;
- prediction;
- NATURAL HAZARDSDE: 7215 Earthquake source observations;
- SEISMOLOGYDE: 7219 Seismic monitoring and test-ban treaty verification;
- SEISMOLOGYDE: 7294 Seismic instruments and networks;
- SEISMOLOGY