The Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability version 2.0 (CSEP2.0): New Developments in Earthquake Forecasting and Testing Capabilities
Abstract
The Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability (CSEP) supports an international effort to conduct and rigorously evaluate earthquake forecasting experiments. CSEP testing centers are now operational in California, New Zealand, Japan, China, and Europe with 442 models under prospective evaluation. CSEP supports retrospective forecast evaluations (testing forecasts on existing data) and prospective experiments (testing forecasts on data to be collected in the future). Current CSEP experiments evaluate forecasts expressed as expected rates in small space-magnitude bins that can be updated at regular intervals (e.g., daily or yearly). This experiment design is simple and allows a wide range of models to participate. However, recent forecast models, including candidate models for governmental Operational Earthquake Forecasting (OEF), can simulate thousands of synthetic seismicity catalogs (stochastic event sets), which express important dependency structures between triggered earthquakes. In addition, some models, such as the third version of the Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast (UCERF3), forecast finite ruptures on specified faults. As part of CSEP's second phase (CSEP2.0), we are redesigning CSEP's software system to support the testing of such model classes. Requirements include access to high-performance computing, distributed processing of forecasts and evaluations, and simplifying data management, as well as adhering to CSEP's principles of transparency and reproducibility within a controlled, open-source software environment. This redesign will be implemented through a modularization of CSEP's codes to allow for experiments that do not fit into the current framework, and guided by feedback from researchers and modelers using the codes for their model development and testing. Easy recombination of modules for new types of experiments should greatly expand CSEP's model and experiment space. The improved capabilities of the CSEP software will be made available to the earthquake forecast research community following best-practices of open-source software, which include continuous integration of the scientific and utilities codes, a collection of unit and acceptance tests, and thorough documentation that includes example forecasts and evaluations.
- Publication:
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AGU Fall Meeting Abstracts
- Pub Date:
- December 2018
- Bibcode:
- 2018AGUFM.S33E0624S
- Keywords:
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- 4315 Monitoring;
- forecasting;
- prediction;
- NATURAL HAZARDSDE: 7215 Earthquake source observations;
- SEISMOLOGYDE: 7219 Seismic monitoring and test-ban treaty verification;
- SEISMOLOGYDE: 7294 Seismic instruments and networks;
- SEISMOLOGY