Potential Impacts of Climate Change on California's Crop and Livestock Agriculture: Modeling Insights from the Statewide's 4th Climate Assessment
Abstract
California's agricultural powerhouse highly dependent on snow cover and groundwater reserves is naturally concerned with the potential impacts of climate change. The state suffers from supply-demand budgeting issues on both temporal and geographic fronts, due to the Mediterranean climate and disconnect in location between areas where water is needed and available. Recent groundwater sustainability regulation will further constrain availability of this buffer resource for future droughts. Future challenges for agriculture include reduced crop yields, changes in area dedication to crops including feed crops for livestock, strain on water supply, and increased frequency and severity of extreme climate events. This paper presents both programming and econometric approaches for investigating impact of climate change on crop and livestock agriculture in California. Balance of both land and water use was considered in the analysis using a CALVIN, a statewide hydro-economic model, for historical hydrologic conditions and a selection of the state's 4th Climate Change Assessment scenarios. In the time horizon of 2050, results indicate that irrigated crop areas will see minor to moderate decreases, a decline in dairy production, and a potential increase in rangeland for beef cattle rangeland due snow cover reductions. These changes are expected to increase the concentration of California's specialty crops, such as almonds, fruits and vegetables, over feed, grain and field crops. Additionally, cattle grazing may see a slight shift towards mountain regions due to combined reductions in snow cover and Central Valley forage growth. Results also indicate that sustainable groundwater regulation would entail deeper water cutbacks compared to climate change related cutbacks. Insights from this research highlight the potential for water markets and the value of sustainable groundwater reserves to mitigate climate-related impacts on crop and livestock agriculture.
- Publication:
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AGU Fall Meeting Abstracts
- Pub Date:
- December 2018
- Bibcode:
- 2018AGUFM.H31N2148C
- Keywords:
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- 1630 Impacts of global change;
- GLOBAL CHANGEDE: 1808 Dams;
- HYDROLOGYDE: 1878 Water/energy interactions;
- HYDROLOGYDE: 6309 Decision making under uncertainty;
- POLICY SCIENCES