Impact of Economic Structure Upgrading on The Water Resources Carrying Capacity in a Fast-Developing Area: A Case Study in The Xiong'an New Area, China
Abstract
The Xiong'an New Area (XNA) located in the North China Plain, approximately 100 km southwest of Beijing, is likely to become the political and economic powerhouse of the country. As a fast developing but water-scarce area, it is crucial for Xiong'an to assess its water resources at its different stages of development and make appropriate management strategies for the future. In the present study, water resources carrying capacity (WRCC) is used as an essential criterion for evaluating the status of water security and sustainable development of the XNA. We used a system dynamics (SD) model to reflect the nonlinear relationship between the water consumption and the economic development, and subsequently estimated the impact of economic structure upgrading on water resources in our study area. We divided the economic structure into three sectors: primary (agricultural) sector, secondary (manufacturing) sector and tertiary (service) sector, with several sub-sectors within each main sector. The water consumption per 10,000 Chinese Yuan (of added value) is calculated as an indicator for the economic aspect of the WRCC, and the degree of water scarcity is calculated to evaluate the relationship between water supply and demand. Two stages of development were configurated in our SD model: the first is a fast-growing stage, in which the proportions of the three economic sectors are changing significantly; the second stage is a stable stage, in which the change of the proportions of the sectors are negligible. The results indicate that: first, when the proportion of primary sector decreases in the economic structure and the proportion of tertiary sector increases, the water consumption per 10,000 Yuan falls dramatically; second, when the economic structure reaches the stable stage, the water consumption per 10,000 Yuan can be reduced by reforming within the secondary sector; third, the local water resources will not be sufficient for the sustainable development in Xiong'an, thus-external water resources is urgently needed to alleviate the issue of water scarcity in this area.
- Publication:
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AGU Fall Meeting Abstracts
- Pub Date:
- December 2018
- Bibcode:
- 2018AGUFM.H21Q1949W
- Keywords:
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- 1880 Water management;
- HYDROLOGYDE: 6319 Institutions;
- POLICY SCIENCESDE: 6344 System operation and management;
- POLICY SCIENCESDE: 6620 Science policy;
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