An Integrated Approach to Ocean Acidification Research and Monitoring: Using Observations and Models to Support the Alaskan Blue Economy

High latitude regions are experiencing the rapid onset of ocean acidification (OA) driven by increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO₂). Alaska is more vulnerable to the effects of OA than other regions due to naturally cold waters and local processes. Accordingly, small changes in OA could rapidly put some ecosystems at risk and impact Alaska's fishery sector. Here we present observational data from four monitoring locations in the Gulf of Alaska (SEAK, GAKOA, KODIAK) and the Bering Sea (M2). These data show new insights into the seasonal progression of OA in the north Pacific and U.S. Arctic. This environmental monitoring provides a baseline for projecting future conditions and has been used to validate newly developed regional OA models for the Gulf of Alaska and Bering Sea. In turn, these models have furthered our understanding of the underlying spatio-temporal variability and allow us to test how representative the mooring locations are of the broader coastal shelf. The models are also being used for downscaled regional projections of OA in order to improve the spatial resolution of projections from coarser Earth System Models (ESMs). These ESM projections suggest that large parts of the Gulf of Alaska and the Bering Sea will be undersaturated in aragonite by 2050, with the entire region becoming perennially undersaturated by 2100. These projections can be applied to bio-economic models for the region as well as help resource managers and community leaders develop strategies for resilience and adaptation in commercial, personal, and subsistence fisheries.