Expanding Wallace species distribution modeling software to support national biodiversity change indicator calculations for GEO BON assessment and reporting.

Effective policy responses to changes in biodiversity are only possible with adaptable analytic tools that leverage the influx of data from biodiversity observation systems. Such analytic tools must also be streamlined and readily mastered by researchers making scientific recommendations. Researchers often rely on closed-source "black box" graphical user interfaces that lack that flexibility and transparency, or on command-line interfaces that require additional knowledge of a programming language, such as R. Flexible, adaptable, and transparent tools are frequently missing from analytical toolkits of conservation scientists and practitioners. Wallace, a new modular R-based open-source software that implements species distribution modeling (SDM), lowers the entry barriers. With rich documentation in the graphical user interface, Wallace guides users from acquiring and processing data through building models and examining predictions. Wallace model outputs characterize environmental suitability for species and can be used to estimate species' geographic ranges —a GEO BON Essential Biodiversity Variable (EBV). We are expanding Wallace to be a new tool for BON in a Box that will facilitate assessment of biodiversity change indicators for GEO BON assessment and reporting. Specifically, we are developing new R packages to be integrated as modules in Wallace's workflow. The packages will allow users to estimate species' current ranges using in situ observations of species' occurrence and ex situ NASA Earth Science data to determine habitat tolerances. From those estimates, users will then be able to calculate biodiversity change indicators such as range size, the upper bound of extent of occurrence, percent suitable land cover, or projected trends under future scenarios. Development of this BON in a Box will also directly enhance and leverage the Colombia BON as a model by integrating Wallace with BioModelos, an existing BON in a Box tool that enables expert validation of species range estimates. Overall, we expect this expansion of Wallace to address challenges to overcoming the gap between best practices of SDM and biodiversity conservation decision-making as well as facilitate responsible reporting on biodiversity by national BONs.