Improved probabilistic 21st century projections of heat waves over the Korean Peninsula and sea surface temperature over East Asian Marginal Seas by considering uncertainties

The surface temperature keeps increasing all over the earth due to the global warming, as a consequence, which very likely leads to occur more extreme events now and future. In order to reduce an expected damage, it is necessary to establish appropriate adaptation and mitigation policies along with future comprehensive plans based on a better climate prediction. In this study, the probabilistic future changes of heat waves over the Korean Peninsula and sea surface temperature (SST) over East Asian marginal seas for a historical and 21st century periods are calculated by using both unweighted-averaging (Multi-model Ensemble: MME) and weighted-averaging (Bayesian Model Averaging: BMA) methods, respectively. Changes in these two variables under global warming are investigated using the representative concentration pathway 4.5 (RCP4.5) and 8.5 (RCP8.5) experiments over 26 coupled models participating in phase five of the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project (CMIP5). Quantitative ranges as well as mean changes of them under both scenarios would be discussed.