A Look at the Statistical Relationship between the Large-Scale Tropospheric Stratification and the Hurricane Maximum Intensity

Hurricanes cause catastrophic damage around the globe on a yearly basis, and it is thus prudent to determine the environmental factors that could account the future hurricane activities. Various modelling and observational studies have shown that hurricane maximum intensity appears to increase 12-18% in future rising sea surface temperatures (SST). Recent theoretical and modelling studies captured another major factor associated with the stratification of the troposphere that could offset the direct increase of the hurricane intensity due to warmer SST. This study focuses on the relationship between the hurricane maximum intensity and the tropospheric stratification from the climatological perspective. Our statistical analyses based on the NCEP reanalysis for different ocean basins reveal indeed a significant negative correlation between the hurricane maximum intensity and the tropospheric stratification in the past 80 years. The signal is particularly strong in the northwestern Pacific basin, but somewhat uncertain in the north Atlantic basin. This result provides new insight into the complicated hurricane intensity variability that has not been adequately examined in previous studies.