Subseasonal and Seasonal Prediction at NOAA: Plans and Prospects

The Weather Research and Forecasting Act of 2017 authorizes NOAA's Sub-seasonal (2 weeks to 3 months) and Seasonal (3 months to 2 years; collectively S2S) forecast responsibilities. Congress's policy is "that it is in the public interest to maintain an active Federal involvement in providing and improving the use of weather and climate information, among users and private providers of this information." In response NOAA has presented a report to Congress that includes: (i) an analysis of how NOAA's S2S forecasts are used for public planning and preparedness; (ii) NOAA's plans for the continued improvement of an S2S forecasting capability, including products to meet those needs described; and (iii) an identification of the needed research, monitoring, observing and forecasting requirements for further progress. In preparing this report NOAA has continued its practice of consulting and engaging with relevant Federal, regional, State, tribal, local government agencies, research institutions, and the private sector.

The Weather Act provides an excellent opportunity for NOAA to reevaluate its direction on S2S science, operations, and services, and to enhance its engagement with the community. The report now serves as a guidepost for NOAA planning and execution, as well as a resource for the public and NOAA's stakeholders on its efforts on S2S forecasting. The report traces the continuum of effort of S2S products and services to the innovations needed to enable and improve them. Two main goals are identified in this report: (i) improving the skill of S2S forecasts, and (ii) enhancing the value of S2S products for stakeholders. This talk will present the key findings from this exercise, and provide overview of NOAA's next steps in implementing the plan.