NOAA's Next Generation Global Prediction System Progress

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) is developing an advanced Next Generation Global Prediction System (NGGPS) to provide more reliable forecast guidance and to help meet increasing service demands for weather and environmental prediction for the Nation. Goals of the NGGPS coupled model are to extend forecast skill beyond 8 to 10 days, support development of products for weeks 3 and 4 to extend weather forecasting to 30 days, and to improve hurricane track and intensity forecasts.

Model Development Teams/Working Groups, comprised of scientists and modelers from NOAA and across US Government agencies and laboratories, cooperative institutions, universities, and the international numerical weather prediction community, community, are working towards a common goal of a single integrated model. The Working Groups are successfully accelerating various aspects of NGGPS model component and system development, including integrating and testing the new FV3 dynamical core into both global and regional models, with a planned implementation date of the global FV3GFS in January 2019.

In addition to integrating and testing the new atmospheric dynamical core, model physics development includes the public release of the Common Community Physics Package (CCPP), with an emphasis on the acceleration of advanced physics suites, and creating optimal verification and validation methods and tools to evaluate the performance of the new coupled NGGPS model. Enhanced coordination among partners, including developing data assimilation improvements (JEDI), the NOAA/NCAR MoA, and the creation of a Unified Forecast System Steering Committee (UFS-SC) is accelerating all efforts and integrating community development and working towards a unified forecast system.