Climatic Factors and Their Availability in Estimating Long-term Changes of Fine Particle Spatio-temporal Distributions over East China
Abstract
Gradual public attention of air pollution in China makes PM2.5 estimation a hot topic in recent years. Using the satellite-based PM2.5 data from 2000 to 2015 over East China, the climatic factors on the dominated PM2.5 variability are revealed in four seasons, such as Western Pacific Warm Pool Strength and the Asia Polar Vortex intensity in spring, the Northern Hemisphere Subtropical High Ridge Position, Western North Pacific Typhoon number and the Kuroshio Current SST in summer, the Asia Polar Vortex Area and the East Asian Trough Intensity in autumn, the Cold Air Activity, the NINO A SSTA, the Pacific Decadal Oscillation and the Pacific Polar Vortex Area in winter. Based on these climatic factors,we establish a method by combining Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF) with stepwise regression to estimate the long-term changes of PM2.5 spatio-temporal distributions. The availability of climatic factors on PM2.5 is evaluated and discussed by cross validation and retrospective test, and the favorable results of PM2.5 estimation in 2016 further validate the impact of climatic factors on PM2.5 variability. Additionally, the quantitative contributions of all climatic factors in each grid over East China are calculated and the respective contributions of every climatic factor in past 16 years are about 7%-30%. This work will deepen the understanding the impact of climate change on air pollution and improve the air quality forecasts over East China.
- Publication:
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AGU Fall Meeting Abstracts
- Pub Date:
- December 2018
- Bibcode:
- 2018AGUFM.A21G2718W
- Keywords:
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- 0317 Chemical kinetic and photochemical properties;
- ATMOSPHERIC COMPOSITION AND STRUCTUREDE: 0322 Constituent sources and sinks;
- ATMOSPHERIC COMPOSITION AND STRUCTUREDE: 0345 Pollution: urban and regional;
- ATMOSPHERIC COMPOSITION AND STRUCTUREDE: 3311 Clouds and aerosols;
- ATMOSPHERIC PROCESSES