A Science Value Framework for Assessing Mission Architectures in the Context of Multiple Climate Objectives

The 2017-2027 Decadal Survey for Earth Science Applications from Space has identified Aerosols (A) and Clouds, Convection, and Precipitation (CCP) as two targeted observables, and recommended that either designated missions, or one combined mission (A-CCP), be implemented to complement the program of record. Multiple science and application objectives are associated with these targeted observables, resulting in multiple implementation paths. To inform mission architecture down-select decisions, the A-CCP team proposes to develop a comprehensive framework to characterize the value of each proposed mission architecture as defined by its provided science, application, and programmatic benefits relative to its associated cost and risk. This Science Value Framework (SVF) will enable the evaluation of the benefits of the concepts using a transparent and objective process. The use of a value framework offers three key benefits:

* The framework provides a detailed documentation of the analysis of the benefits achieved by each mission concept;

* The structured approach is rooted in Systems Analysis and Decision Theory best practices to enable clear, traceable, and repeatable analyses;

* The approach facilitates conversations among stakeholders by highlighting key areas of agreement and disagreement, and fosters productive discussions.

The SVF will consist of a three-step process to assess the value of the mission architectures. Benefits will first be assessed with the use of Multi-Attribute Decision Analysis strategies. Each architecture will be evaluated on Utility (the degree to which the concept addresses the objectives if all the target geophysical variables were measured perfectly) and Quality (the degree to which measurements provide the required geophysical variable). Benefits will then be evaluated within the context of the cost of the architectures, obtained from independent cost estimates. The analysis will then integrate the results of independent risk assessments, providing a value-driven basis for assessing the mission architectures.

This presentation will first provide a brief overview of decision theory. It will then focus on the A-CCP framework, providing an overview of the process. Lastly, it will provide a status update on the most recent activities at the time of the presentation.