Chemical Weather Forecast: Online Inclusion of Chemical Component into NOAA's Next Generation Global Prediction System (NGGPS)

The global Finite-Volume cubed-sphere dynamical core (FV3) developed by GFDL was chosen by NOAA to be the Next Generation Global Prediction System (NGGPS) of the National Weather Service in the US. In this study we describe the model that has been coupled with GOCART aerosol modules (FV3GFS-GSDChem) and is now used at NOAA ESRL GSD to provide real-time experimental aerosol forecasts at 25km horizontal resolution globally from the surface to the top of atmosphere. The initial chemistry modules include simplified parameterization of sulfur/sulfate chemistry, hydrophobic and hydrophilic black and organic carbon, a 4-bin sea salt, 5-bin dust, volcanic ash. The wildfires modeling is using Fire Radiative Power (FRP) data from satellite observation and plume rise modeling with an online 1d cloud model. The global anthropogenic emissions are from a Community Emissions Data System (CEDS) and HTAP_v2. Both the GOCART and emission modeling systems are residing within the new National Unified Operational Prediction Capability (NUOPC)-based NOAA environmental modeling system (NEMS) component, driven by FV3GFS. The model is able to simulate wild fires and forecast the transport of smoke plumes over northwestern California during late July, 2018. It also captures the movement of high sea salt concentrations associated with tropical storm Ampil which hit Shanghai and eastern China on July 20^th, 2018. Model performance of FV3GFS-GSDChem is also evaluated using the Atmospheric Tomography Mission (ATom-1) aircraft measurements in August 2016, when plumes of dust, biomass burning, and low level sea salt were observed over the southern and central Atlantic, and anthropogenic pollution was observed over the United States on flights from Minnesota to Southern California. The aerosol hourly forecast results at model native grid are sampled on the same time and location as the NASA DC-8 aircraft to compare with the observed aerosols.