Inapproximability of the independent set polynomial in the complex plane

We study the complexity of approximating the independent set polynomial $Z_G(\lambda)$ of a graph $G$ with maximum degree $\Delta$ when the activity $\lambda$ is a complex number. This problem is already well understood when $\lambda$ is real using connections to the $\Delta$-regular tree $T$. The key concept in that case is the "occupation ratio" of the tree $T$. This ratio is the contribution to $Z_T(\lambda)$ from independent sets containing the root of the tree, divided by $Z_T(\lambda)$ itself. If $\lambda$ is such that the occupation ratio converges to a limit, as the height of $T$ grows, then there is an FPTAS for approximating $Z_G(\lambda)$ on a graph $G$ with maximum degree $\Delta$. Otherwise, the approximation problem is NP-hard. Unsurprisingly, the case where $\lambda$ is complex is more challenging. Peters and Regts identified the complex values of $\lambda$ for which the occupation ratio of the $\Delta$-regular tree converges. These values carve a cardioid-shaped region $\Lambda_\Delta$ in the complex plane. Motivated by the picture in the real case, they asked whether $\Lambda_\Delta$ marks the true approximability threshold for general complex values $\lambda$. Our main result shows that for every $\lambda$ outside of $\Lambda_\Delta$, the problem of approximating $Z_G(\lambda)$ on graphs $G$ with maximum degree at most $\Delta$ is indeed NP-hard. In fact, when $\lambda$ is outside of $\Lambda_\Delta$ and is not a positive real number, we give the stronger result that approximating $Z_G(\lambda)$ is actually #P-hard. If $\lambda$ is a negative real number outside of $\Lambda_\Delta$, we show that it is #P-hard to even decide whether $Z_G(\lambda)>0$, resolving in the affirmative a conjecture of Harvey, Srivastava and Vondrak. Our proof techniques are based around tools from complex analysis - specifically the study of iterative multivariate rational maps.