Towards Forecasting Capability in Solar Energetic Particle Modeling

Solar Energetic Particles (SEPs) are an important aspect of space weather. SEP events posses a high destructive potential, since they may cause disruptions of communication systems on Earth and be fatal to crew members onboard spacecrafts and, in extreme cases, harmful to people onboard high altitude flights. However, currently the research community lacks efficient tools to predict such hazardous threat and its potential impacts. Such a tool is a first step for humanity to improve its preparedness for SEP events and ultimately to be able to mitigate their effects. The main goal of this project is to develop a computational tool that will have the forecasting capability and can be the basis for operational system that will provide live information on the current potential threats posed by SEP based on the observations of the Sun. The complexity of the problem is reflected in the level of sophistication of the product of development. The tool comprises several numerical models, which are designed to simulate different physical aspects of SEPs. The background conditions in the interplanetary medium, the magnetic field in particular, play a defining role in the transport and acceleration of SEPs, and are simulated with the state-of-the-art MHD solver, BATS-R-US. The newly developed particle code, M-FLAMPA, simulates the actual transport and acceleration of SEPs and is coupled to the MHD code. The special property of SEPs, the tendency to follow magnetic lines of force, is fully taken advantage of in the computational model, which substitutes a complicated 3-D model with a multitude of 1-D models. This approach significantly simplifies computations and improves the time performance of the overall model. Another aspect of SEP physics, the production of energetic particles during solar flares is also explored.