Global risk model for vector-borne transmission of Zika virus reveals the role of El Niño 2015
Abstract
This study quantifies the impact of climate variability on Zika virus (ZIKV) transmission by two mosquito vectors with distinct characteristics: Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus. Observed climate data were used to dynamically drive a two vectors-one host R0 epidemiological model. Our modeling results indicate that temperature conditions related to the 2015 El Niño climate phenomenon were exceptionally conducive for mosquito-borne transmission of ZIKV over South America. The virus is believed to have entered the continent earlier in 2013. This finding implicates that such a large ZIKV outbreak occurred not solely because of the introduction of ZIKV in a naive population, but because the climatic conditions were optimal for mosquito-borne transmission of ZIKV over South America in 2015.
- Publication:
-
Proceedings of the National Academy of Science
- Pub Date:
- January 2017
- DOI:
- 10.1073/pnas.1614303114
- Bibcode:
- 2017PNAS..114..119C
- Keywords:
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- Zika virus;
- R0 model;
- El Niño;
- Ae. aegypti;
- Ae. albopictus