In this paper, we compare different metrics to predict the error rate of optical systems based on nonbinary forward error correction (FEC). It is shown that the correct metric to predict the performance of coded modulation based on nonbinary FEC is the mutual information. The accuracy of the prediction is verified in a detailed example with multiple constellation formats, FEC overheads in both simulations and optical transmission experiments over a recirculating loop. It is shown that the employed FEC codes must be universal if performance prediction based on thresholds is used. A tutorial introduction into the computation of the threshold from optical transmission measurements is also given.