The October 25th 2015 super-cell storm over central Israel: numerical simulations with the WRF model
Abstract
We present high-resolution WRF simulations with lightning assimilation (Fierro et al., 2012; Lynn et al., 2015) coupled with the Dynamic Lightning Scheme (Lynn et al., 2012) of the October 25th 2015 super-cell event in the eastern Mediterranean. That storm developed within the northern tip of a Red-Sea trough off the Egyptian coastline near Alexandria, with deep convective cells rapidly growing over the sea, exhibiting cloud top temperatures colder than -70°C ( 18 km) and radar reflectivity cores > 65 dBz at 10 km. As the cells crossed the Israeli coast-line north of Tel-Aviv, they exhibited intensive lightning activity, severe hail, downbursts, and intense rain. The lightning detection system of the Israeli Electrical Corporation registered a total of over 17,000 CGs, and for 20 minutes at the peak of the event recorded CG flash-rates greater than 430 strokes per minute (if including IC strokes, it was likely higher). The results of the simulations properly reconstruct the rapid growth of vertically extensive high-reflectivity cores, with significant amounts of graupel, ice and supercooled water within the charging zone below -20C. This guaranteed the effectiveness of non-inductive charge separation processes leading to the exceptional flash rates that were observed. Fierro, A. O, E. R. Mansell, C. L. Ziegler, and D. R. MacGorman, 2012: Application of a Lightning Data Assimilation Technique in the WRF-ARW Model at Cloud-Resolving Scales for the Tornado Outbreak of 24 May 2011. Mon. Wea. Rev., 140, 2609-2627. Lynn, B. H., G. Kelman, and G. Ellrod, 2015: An Evaluation of the Efficacy of Using Observed Lightning to Improve Convective Lightning Forecasts. Wea. Forecasting, 30, 405-423. Lynn, B. H., Y. Yair, C. Price, G. Kelman, and A. J. Clark, 2012: Predicting cloud-to-ground and intracloud lightning in weather forecast models.Wea. Forecasting, 27, 1470-1488, doi:10.1175/WAF-D-11-00144.1.
- Publication:
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EGU General Assembly Conference Abstracts
- Pub Date:
- April 2017
- Bibcode:
- 2017EGUGA..1912529L