Ultra-High Resolution Orbit Determination of (486958) 2014 MU69: Predicting an Occultation with 1% of an Orbit
Abstract
In November 2015, the NASA New Horizons spacecraft burned its thrusters to intercept the cold classical Kuiper Belt Object (486958) 2014 MU69. Then, on July 17, 2017, five small telescopes in Chubut Province, Argentina recorded a solid body occultation of MU69. Both these events required an orbital solution of unprecedented accuracy, as will the January 1, 2019 flyby of MU69 by New Horizons. This was especially difficult because there were no precoveries of MU69 prior to July 2014, it is in an extremely crowded field near the galactic core, and it is faint enough to only be reliably detected by Hubble Space Telescope’s Wide Field Camera 3 (WFC3). To accomplish this, we performed an extremely detailed analysis of 237 WFC3 images, down to the subpixel distortion level, in order to produce individual probability distribution functions (PDFs) for the position of MU69 in each WFC3 image. We registered each WFC3 image against a pre-release version of the Gaia DR2 catalog, which produced even smaller residuals than the now-released DR1. We then combined these WFC3+Gaia PDFs with a high-precision few-body numerical integrator and a Monte Carlo Markov Chain (MCMC) sampler to produce a state vector PDF for MU69 at defined epoch. Propagating those state vectors from the epoch produces an instantaneous positional cloud for MU69 at any given time. This positional cloud was then directly translated into a shadow path uncertainty cloud in order to plan the MU69 occultation campaign. We will describe this process of fully propagating errors from WFC3 images to telescope sites on the ground, and also describe refinements for future guiding of New Horizons to its encounter with MU69. We thank NASA, Hubble, Gaia, CONAE, the city of Comodoro Rivadavia, and the government of Argentina for their assistance and support of the MU69 occultation campaign.
- Publication:
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AAS/Division for Planetary Sciences Meeting Abstracts #49
- Pub Date:
- October 2017
- Bibcode:
- 2017DPS....4950402P