Analyzing Meteoroid Flights Using Particle Filters
Abstract
Fireball observations from camera networks provide position and time information along the trajectory of a meteoroid that is transiting our atmosphere. The complete dynamical state of the meteoroid at each measured time can be estimated using Bayesian filtering techniques. A particle filter is a novel approach to modeling the uncertainty in meteoroid trajectories and incorporates errors in initial parameters, the dynamical model used, and observed position measurements. Unlike other stochastic approaches, a particle filter does not require predefined values for initial conditions or unobservable trajectory parameters. The Bunburra Rockhole fireball, observed by the Australian Desert Fireball Network (DFN) in 2007, is used to determine the effectiveness of a particle filter for use in fireball trajectory modeling. The final mass is determined to be 2.16+/ 1.33 {kg} with a final velocity of 6030+/ 216 {{m}} {{{s}}}^{1}, similar to previously calculated values. The full automatability of this approach will allow an unbiased evaluation of all events observed by the DFN and lead to a better understanding of the dynamical state and size frequency distribution of asteroid and cometary debris in the inner solar system.
 Publication:

The Astronomical Journal
 Pub Date:
 February 2017
 DOI:
 10.3847/15383881/153/2/87
 arXiv:
 arXiv:1711.01726
 Bibcode:
 2017AJ....153...87S
 Keywords:

 meteorites;
 meteors;
 meteoroids;
 methods: observational;
 methods: statistical;
 Astrophysics  Earth and Planetary Astrophysics;
 Physics  Data Analysis;
 Statistics and Probability
 EPrint:
 12 pages, 2 figures, 3 tables