Modeling the Magnetopause Shadowing and Drift Orbit Bifurcation Loss during the June 2015 Dropout Event

The relativistic electron flux in Earth's radiation belt are observed to drop by orders of magnitude on timescale of a few hours. Where do the electrons go during the dropout? This is one of the most important outstanding questions in radiation belt studies. Here we will study the 22 June 2015 dropout event which occurred during one of the largest geomagnetic storms in the last decade. A sudden and nearly complete loss of all the outer zone relativistic and ultra-relativistic electrons were observed after a strong interplanetary shock. The Last Closed Drift Shell (LCDS) calculated using the TS04 model reached as low as L*=3.7 during the shock and stay below L*=4 for 1 hour. The unusually low LCDS values suggest that magnetopause shadowing and the associated outward radial diffusion can contribute significantly to the observed dropout. In addition, Drift Orbit Bifurcation (DOB) has been suggested as an important loss mechanism for radiation belt electrons, especially when the solar wind dynamic pressure is high, but its relative importance has not been quantified. Here, we will model the June 2015 dropout event using a radial diffusion model that includes physical and event-specific inputs. First, we will trace electron drift shells based on TS04 model to identify the LCDS and bifurcation regions as a function of the 2nd adiabatic invariant (K) and time. To model magnetopause shadowing, electron lifetimes in our model will be set to electron drift periods at L*>LCDS. Electron lifetimes inside the bifurcation region have been estimated by Ukhorskiy et al. [JGR 2011, doi:10.1029/2011JA016623] as a function of L* and K, which will also be implemented in the model. This will be the first effort to include the DOB loss in a comprehensive radiation belt model. Furthermore, to realistically simulate outward radial diffusion, the new radial diffusion coefficients that are calculated based on the realistic TS04 model and include physical K dependence [Cunningham, JGR 2016, doi:10.1002/2015JA021981] will be achieved and included here. With these event-specific and physical model inputs, we will test how well the observed fast dropout during the June 2015 event can be reproduced by our model, and quantify the relative contribution of magnetopause shadowing, outward radial diffusion, and DOB to the fast electron depletion.