Space Weather Forecasting at NOAA with Michigan's Geospace Model: Results from the First Year in Real-Time Operations

In October 2016, the first version of the Geospace model was transitioned into real-time operations at NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). The Geospace model is a part of the Space Weather Modeling Framework (SWMF) developed at the University of Michigan, and the model simulates the full time-dependent 3D Geospace environment (Earth's magnetosphere, ring current and ionosphere) and predicts global space weather parameters such as induced magnetic perturbations in space and on Earth's surface. The current version of the Geospace model uses three coupled components of SWMF: the BATS-R-US global magnetosphere model, the Rice Convection Model (RCM) of the inner magnetosphere, and the Ridley Ionosphere electrodynamics Model (RIM). In the operational mode, SWMF/Geospace runs continually in real-time as long as there is new solar wind data arriving from a satellite at L1, either DSCOVR or ACE. We present an analysis of the overall performance of the Geospace model during the first year of real-time operations. Evaluation metrics include Kp, Dst, as well as regional magnetometer stations. We will also present initial results from new products, such as the AE index, available with the recent upgrade to the Geospace model.