Predicting the Magnetic Properties of ICMEs: A Pragmatic View
Abstract
The southward component of the interplanetary magnetic field plays a crucial role in being able to successfully predict space weather phenomena. Yet, thus far, it has proven extremely difficult to forecast with any degree of accuracy. In this presentation, we describe an empirically-based modeling framework for estimating Bz values during the passage of interplanetary coronal mass ejections (ICMEs). The model includes: (1) an empirically-based estimate of the magnetic properties of the flux rope in the low corona (including helicity and field strength); (2) an empirically-based estimate of the dynamic properties of the flux rope in the high corona (including direction, speed, and mass); and (3) a physics-based estimate of the evolution of the flux rope during its passage to 1 AU driven by the output from (1) and (2). We compare model output with observations for a selection of events to estimate the accuracy of this approach. Importantly, we pay specific attention to the uncertainties introduced by the components within the framework, separating intrinsic limitations from those that can be improved upon, either by better observations or more sophisticated modeling. Our analysis suggests that current observations/modeling are insufficient for this empirically-based framework to provide reliable and actionable prediction of the magnetic properties of ICMEs. We suggest several paths that may lead to better forecasts.
- Publication:
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AGU Fall Meeting Abstracts
- Pub Date:
- December 2017
- Bibcode:
- 2017AGUFMSH31D..08R
- Keywords:
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- 4305 Space weather;
- NATURAL HAZARDS;
- 7594 Instruments and techniques;
- SOLAR PHYSICS;
- ASTROPHYSICS;
- AND ASTRONOMY;
- 7924 Forecasting;
- SPACE WEATHER;
- 7999 General or miscellaneous;
- SPACE WEATHER