NOAA SWPC / NASA CCMC Space Weather Modeling Assessment Project: Toward the Validation of Advancements in Heliospheric Space Weather Prediction Within WSA-Enlil

In 2011, NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC) transitioned the world's first operational space weather model into use at the National Weather Service's Weather and Climate Operational Supercomputing System (WCOSS). This operational forecasting tool is comprised of the Wang-Sheeley-Arge (WSA) solar wind model coupled with the Enlil heliospheric MHD model. Relying on daily-updated photospheric magnetograms produced by the National Solar Observatory's Global Oscillation Network Group (GONG), this tool provides critical predictive knowledge of heliospheric dynamics such as high speed streams and coronal mass ejections. With the goal of advancing this predictive model and quantifying progress, SWPC and NASA's Community Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMC) have initiated a collaborative effort to assess improvements in space weather forecasts at Earth by moving from a single daily-updated magnetogram to a sequence of time-dependent magnetograms to drive the ambient inputs for the WSA-Enlil model as well as incorporating the newly developed Air Force Data Assimilative Photospheric Flux Transport (ADAPT) model. We will provide a detailed overview of the scope of this effort and discuss preliminary results from the first phase focusing on the impact of time-dependent magnetogram inputs to the WSA-Enlil model.