What water isotopes tell us about water cycle responses to climate change

The water cycle is expected to respond strongly to rising global temperatures. Models predict regional imbalances in evaporation and precipitation will intensify, resulting in a slowing of the large-scale circulation. This slowing will extend the moisture length scale by increasing the amount of time water resides in the atmosphere. However, verifying these changes observationally is challenging. Isotope ratios in water vapor and precipitation represent an integrated record of moisture's journey from evaporative source to precipitation sink. Consequently, they provide a unique opportunity to identify changes in moisture length scale associated with shifts in regional hydrologic balance. Leveraging satellite retrievals, box models, climate simulations, and in situ data, this presentation demonstrates how water isotope ratios can be used to estimate water cycle changes over the historical period and into the future. These changes are closely linked to variations in the divergence of atmospheric moisture fluxes, which result from variations in specific humidity, wind direction, and wind speed. This presentation highlights the extent to which isotopic measurements allow us to track changes in the dynamic, or wind-driven, component of moisture transport and to investigate whether remote moisture contributions are becoming increasingly important in augmenting local precipitation.