Modeling the Diagnostic Effects of Vegetation, Soil Albedo, and Dust on Mid-Holocene Saharan Climate

Unlike today, the Mid-Holocene (MH, 6,000 BP) African Sahara comprised of mixed vegetation and permanent lakes that supported human settlements. Climate proxies including leaf wax isotope, pollen, and dust flux records suggest that African monsoonal precipitation reached 31°N, compared to 15°N today. Changes in orbital forcing are partly responsible for the intensification of the African monsoon, but alone cannot explain the more humid MH Sahara. Modeling studies have shown that vegetation and soil albedo feedbacks greatly increase Saharan rainfall but still fall short of levels indicated by proxies. A recent study proposed that reduced Saharan dust concentrations due to greater vegetation coverage further increased MH rainfall. However, this study used idealized dust concentrations to improve proxy agreement and did not include the dust aerosol indirect effects in its model physics. Here we use CESM CAM5-chem to quantify the impact of diagnostic changes in Saharan dust, including indirect effects, on MH Saharan climate and compare it to changes in orbital forcing, soil albedo, and vegetation. Consistent with previous studies, a change in MH orbital forcing alone leads to a 20% increase in summer (June-Sept.) precipitation over Northern Africa (0°-30°N, 20°W-30°E) relative to a pre-industrial control, but still fails to reach the northward extent suggested by proxies. Adding MH soil albedo or vegetation increases summer precipitation by 45% and 52%, and shifts the maximum latitudinal rainfall extent 10° and 12° northward, respectively. These increases are 2.28 and 2.64 times greater than the precipitation increase from MH orbital forcing alone. MH soil albedo results in a dust burden increase of 22%, yet MH vegetation results in a 96% reduction. Both MH soil albedo and vegetation combined increase summer precipitation by 56% and 13° northward, an increase 2.84 times greater than the orbital forcing alone, and reduces dust burden by 97%. An additional simulation with prescribed pre-industrial dust over a MH Sahara will isolate the effect of dust, and an analysis of aerosol indirect effects will be presented. The simulations presented here are the most realistic treatment of dust aerosols on MH Saharan climate and advance our understanding of how dust forcing compares with more widely studied climate forcings.