Last Millennium ENSO-Mean State Interactions in the Tropical Pacific

The nature and degree of interaction between the mean state of the tropical Pacific and ENSO remains an open question. Here we use high temporal resolution, tropical Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) records from the last millennium to investigate the relationship between ENSO and the tropical Pacific zonal sea surface temperature gradient (hereafter dSST). A dSST time series was created by standardizing, interpolating, and compositing 7 SST records from the western and 3 SST records from the eastern tropical Pacific. Propagating the age uncertainty of each of these records was accomplished through a Monte Carlo Empirical Orthogonal Function analysis. We find last millennium dSST is strong from 700 to 1300 CE, begins to weaken at approximately 1300 CE, and decreases more rapidly at 1700 CE. dSST was compared to 14 different ENSO reconstructions, independent of the records used to create dSST, to assess the nature of the ENSO-mean state relationship. dSST correlations with 50-year standard deviations of ENSO reconstructions are consistently negative, suggesting that more frequent, strong El Niño events on this timescale reduces dSST. To further assess the strength and direction of the ENSO-dSST relationship, moving 100-year standard deviations of ENSO reconstructions were compared to moving 100-year averages of dSST using Cohen's Kappa statistic, which measures categorical agreement. The Li et al. (2011) and Li et al. (2013) Nino 3.4 ENSO reconstructions had the highest agreement with dSST (k=0.80 and 0.70, respectively), with greater ENSO standard deviation coincident with periods of weak dSST. Other ENSO reconstructions showed weaker agreement with dSST, which may be partly due to low sample size. The consistent directional agreement of dSST with ENSO, coupled with the inability of strong ENSO events to develop under a weak SST gradient, suggests periods of more frequent strong El Niño events reduced tropical Pacific dSST on centennial timescales over the last millennium.