Evaluating confidence in the impact of regulatory nutrient reduction and assessing the competing impact of climate change

Human impacts on the Chesapeake Bay through increased nutrient run-off as a result of land-use change, urbanization, and industrialization, have resulted in a degradation of water quality over the last half-century. These direct impacts, compounded with human-induced climate changes such as warming, rising sea level, and changes in precipitation, have elevated the conversation surrounding the future of the Bay's water quality. As a result, in 2010, a Total Maximum Daily Load (TMDL) was established for the Chesapeake Bay that limited nutrient and sediment input in an effort to increase dissolved oxygen. This research utilizes a multiple model approach to evaluate confidence in the estuarine water quality modeling portion of the TMDL. One of the models is then used to assess the potential impact climate change may have on the success of currently mandated nutrient reduction levels in 2050. Results demonstrate that although the models examined differ structurally and in biogeochemical complexity, they project a similar attainment of regulatory water quality standards after nutrient reduction, while also establishing that meeting water quality standards is relatively independent of hydrologic conditions. By developing a Confidence Index, this research identifies the locations and causes of greatest uncertainty in modeled projections of water quality. Although there are specific locations and times where the models disagree, this research lends an increased degree of confidence in the appropriateness of the TMDL levels and in the general impact nutrient reductions will have on Chesapeake Bay water quality under current environmental conditions. However, when examining the potential impacts of climate change, this research shows that the combined impacts of increasing temperature, sea level, and river flow negatively affect dissolved oxygen throughout the Chesapeake Bay and impact progress towards meeting the water quality standards associated with the TMDL with increased temperature as the primary culprit. These results, having been continually shared with the regulatory TMDL modelers, will aid in the decision making for the 2017 TMDL Mid-Point Assessment.