Assessing the Climate Resilience of Transport Infrastructure Investments in Tanzania
Abstract
Whilst there is an urgent need for infrastructure investment in developing countries, there is a risk that poorly planned and built infrastructure will introduce new vulnerabilities. As climate change increases the magnitudes and frequency of natural hazard events, incidence of disruptive infrastructure failures are likely to become more frequent. Therefore, it is important that infrastructure planning and investment is underpinned by climate risk assessment that can inform adaptation planning. Tanzania's rapid economic growth is placing considerable strain on the country's transportation infrastructure (roads, railways, shipping and aviation); especially at the port of Dar es Salaam and its linking transport corridors. A growing number of natural hazard events, in particular flooding, are impacting the reliability of this already over-used network. Here we report on new methodology to analyse vulnerabilities and risks due to failures of key locations in the intermodal transport network of Tanzania, including strategic connectivity to neighboring countries. To perform the national-scale risk analysis we will utilize a system-of-systems methodology. The main components of this general risk assessment, when applied to transportation systems, include: (1) Assembling data on: spatially coherent extreme hazards and intermodal transportation networks; (2) Intersecting hazards with transport network models to initiate failure conditions that trigger failure propagation across interdependent networks; (3) Quantifying failure outcomes in terms of social impacts (customers/passengers disrupted) and/or macroeconomic consequences (across multiple sectors); and (4) Simulating, testing and collecting multiple failure scenarios to perform an exhaustive risk assessment in terms of probabilities and consequences. The methodology is being used to pinpoint vulnerability and reduce climate risks to transport infrastructure investments.
- Publication:
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AGU Fall Meeting Abstracts
- Pub Date:
- December 2017
- Bibcode:
- 2017AGUFMPA53B0278H
- Keywords:
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- 1616 Climate variability;
- GLOBAL CHANGE;
- 1803 Anthropogenic effects;
- HYDROLOGY;
- 1880 Water management;
- HYDROLOGY;
- 1884 Water supply;
- HYDROLOGY