Economic Justification Of Robust Or Adaptive Planning And Design Of Resilient Water Resources Systems Under Deep Uncertainty: A Case Study In The Iolanda Water Treatment Plant Of Lusaka, Zambia

This discussion is focused around the application of a bottom-up vulnerability assessment procedure for planning of climate resilience to a water treament plant for teh city of Iolanda, Zambia. This project is a Millennium Challenge Corporation (MCC) innitiaive with technical support by the UNESCO category II, International Center for Integrated Water Resources Management (ICIWaRM) with secretariat at the US Army Corps of Engineers Institute for Water Resources. The MCC is an innovative and independent U.S. foreign aid agency that is helping lead the fight against global poverty. The bottom-up vulnerability assessmentt framework examines critical performance thresholds, examines the external drivers that would lead to failure, establishes plausibility and analytical uncertainty that would lead to failure, and provides the economic justification for robustness or adaptability. This presentation will showcase the experiences in the application of the bottom-up framework to a region that is very vulnerable to climate variability, has poor instituional capacities, and has very limited data. It will illustrate the technical analysis and a decision process that led to a non-obvious climate robust solution. Most importantly it will highlight the challenges of utilizing discounted cash flow analysis (DCFA), such as net present value, in justifying robust or adaptive solutions, i.e. comparing solution under different future risks. We highlight a solution to manage the potential biases these DCFA procedures can incur.