Subsidence Modeling of the Over-exploited Granular Aquifer System in Aguascalientes, Mexico

The valley of Aguascalientes in central Mexico experiences subsidence rates of up to 100 [mm/yr] due to overexploitation of its aquifer system, as revealed from satellite-based geodetic observations. The spatial pattern of the subsidence over the valley is inhomogeneous and affected by shallow faulting. The understanding of the subsoil mechanics is still limited. A better understanding of the subsidence process in Aguascalientes is needed to provide insights for future subsidence in the valley. We present here a displacement-constrained finite-element subsidence model, based on the USGS MODFLOW software. The construction of our model relies on 3 main inputs: (1) groundwater level time series obtained from extraction wells' hydrographs, (2) subsurface lithostratigraphy interpreted from well drilling logs, and (3) hydrogeological parameters obtained from field pumping tests. The groundwater level measurements were converted to pore pressure in our model's layers, and used in Terzaghi's equation for calculating effective stress. We then used the effective stress along with the displacement obtained from geodetic observations to constrain and optimize five geo-mechanical parameters: compression ratio, reloading ratio, secondary compression index, over consolidation ratio, and consolidation coefficient. Finally, we use the NEN-Bjerrum linear stress model formulation for settlements to determine elastic and visco-plastic strain, accounting for the aquifer system units' aging effect. Preliminary results show higher compaction response in clay-saturated intervals (i.e. aquitards) of the aquifer system, as reflected in the spatial pattern of the surface deformation. The forecasted subsidence for our proposed scenarios show a much more pronounced deformation when we consider higher groundwater extraction regimes.