How the Slip Distribution Complexities Control the Tsunami Scenarios: a Sensitivity Analysis for the Hellenic and Calabrian Subduction Interfaces.

Recent giant tsunamigenic earthquakes (Sumatra 2004, Chile 2010, Tohoku 2011) have confirmed that the complexity of seismic slip distributions may play a fundamental role in the generation and the amplitude of the tsunami waves. In particular, big patches of large slip on the shallower part of the subduction zones, as well as slow rupture propagation within low rigidity areas, can contribute to increase the tsunamigenic potential thus generating devastating coastal inundation. In the Mediterranean Sea, some subduction structures can be identified, such as the Hellenic Arc at the boundary between the African and Aegean plates, and the Calabrian Arc between the European and African plates. We have modelled these areas using discretized high-resolution 3D fault geometries with realistic variability of the strike and dip angles. In particular, the latter geometries have been constrained from the analysis of a dense network of seismic reflection profiles and the seismicity of the areas. To study the influence of different rigidity conditions, we compare the tsunami scenarios deriving from homogeneous slip to those obtained from depth-dependent slip distributions at different magnitudes. These depth-dependent slip distributions are obtained by imposing a variability with depth of both shear modulus and seismic rate, and the conservation of the dislocation over the whole subduction zone. Furthermore, we generate along the Hellenic and Calabrian arc subduction interfaces an ensemble of stochastic slip distributions using a composite source model technique. To mimic either single or multiple asperity source models, the distribution of sub-events whose sum produces the stochastic slip, are distributed based on a PDF, defined as the combination of either one or more Gaussian functions. Tsunami scenarios are then generated from this ensemble in order to address how the position of the main patch of slip can affect the tsunami amplitude along the coast.