El-Niño Grande and the Great Famine (1876-78)

The 1876-1878 Great Famine impacted multiple regions across the globe including parts of Asia, Nordeste Brazil, and northern and southern Africa, with total human fatalities exceeding 50 million people, arguably the worst environmental disaster to befall humanity. While socio-economic factors in the Late Victorian colonial world were responsible for the global humanitarian disaster, the triggers for famine were acute droughts that caused widespread crop failures. We combine instrumental observations, tree-ring drought estimates, and sea-surface temperature (SST) reconstructions to present the first characterization of this multi-year drought and investigate its associated global climatic conditions. We show that this extremely severe and widespread drought was largely caused by an El-Niño that exceeded the extreme intensities of the 1982-83 and 1997-98 El-Niños. Its higher peak intensity, the central Pacific location of the peak SST anomalies, and longer persistence, were critical in generating extreme droughts over multiple seasons in several regions. The cascading influence of the extreme tropical Pacific SSTs led to unprecedented conditions in the tropical Indian and Atlantic basins that likely influenced the intensity and persistence of regional droughts in parts of the world. The climatic conditions associated with the Great Famine arose from natural variability, indicating a similar event could occur in the future and simultaneously induce drought conditions across multiple major grain producing areas of the world, undermining global food-security. Improved understanding of the causes and character of the 1876-1878 global climate and food crisis should lead to better anticipation and prediction of such events to help avert similar catastrophes.