Cost of Lightning Strike Related Outages of Visual Navigational Aids at Airports in the United States

Lightning storms are a serious hazard that can cause damage to vital human infrastructure. In aviation, lightning strikes cause outages to air traffic control equipment and facilities that result in major disruptions in the network, causing delays and financial costs measured in the millions of dollars. Failure of critical systems, such as Visual Navigational Aids (Visual NAVAIDS), are particularly dangerous since NAVAIDS are an essential part of landing procedures. Precision instrument approach, an operation utilized during the poor visibility conditions, utilizes several of these systems, and their failure leads to holding patterns and ultimately diversions to other airports. These disruptions lead to both ground and airborne delay. Accurate prediction of these outages and their costs is a key prerequisite for successful investment planning. The air traffic management and control sector need accurate information to successfully plan maintenance and develop a more robust system under the threat of increasing lightning rates. To analyze the issue, we couple the Remote Monitoring and Logging System (RMLS) database and the Aviation System Performance Metrics (ASPM) databases to identify lightning-induced outages, and connect them with weather conditions, demand and landing runway to calculate the total delays induced by the outages, as well as the number of cancellations and diversions. The costs are then determined by calculating direct costs to aircraft operators and costs of passengers' time for delays, cancellations and diversions. The results indicate that 1) not all NAVAIDS are created equal, and 2) outside conditions matter. The cost of an outage depends on the importance of the failed system and the conditions that prevailed before, during and after the failure. The outage that occurs during high demand and poor weather conditions is more likely to result in more delays and higher costs.