Changes in the Winter-Time Storminess over the North Atlantic, Associated with the 1.5°C and 2°C Levels of Global Warming.

This study investigates the changes in extreme winter-time weather conditions over the NH midlatitudes. These conditions are to a large degree caused by extratropical storms, often associated with very intense and hazardous precipitation and wind. Although the skill of CMIP5 models in capturing these extremes is improved when compared to the previous generations, the spatial and temporal resolution of the models still remains a primary reason for the deficiencies. Therefore, many features of the storms projected for the future remain inconsistent. Here we are using the high-res horizontal (0.25° lat x lon) and temporal (3hr) output of the HAPPI experiment. This output facilitates not only an implicit extraction of storm tracks but also an analysis of the storm intensity, in terms of their maximum wind and rainfall, at subdaily time-scales. The analysis of simulated present climate shows an improved spatial pattern of large-scale circulation over North America and Europe, as compared to the CMIP5-generation models, and consequently a reduced zonal bias in storm tracks pattern. The information provided at subdaily time scale provides much more realistic representation of the magnitude of the extremes. These advances significantly contribute to our understanding of differential climate impacts between 1.5°C and 2°C levels of global warming. The spatial pattern of the north-eastward shift of storm tracks, derived from the recent CMIP5 future projections, is remarkably refined here. For example, increasing storminess expands towards Scandinavia, and not towards the north-central Europe. Derived spatial features of the storm intensity, e.g. increase in wind and precipitation on the west coasts of both the British Isles and Scandinavia underlines the relevancy of the results for the local communities and potential climate change adaptation initiatives.