Assessing LULC changes over Chilika Lake watershed in Eastern India using Driving Force Analysis

Rapid population growth and industrial development has brought about significant changes in Land Use Land Cover (LULC) of many developing countries in the world. This study investigates LULC changes in the Chilika Lake watershed of Eastern India for the period of 1988 to 2016. The methodology involves pre-processing and classification of Landsat satellite images using support vector machine (SVM) supervised classification algorithm. Results reveal that `Cropland', `Emergent Vegetation' and `Settlement' has expanded over the study period by 284.61 km², 106.83 km² and 98.83 km² respectively. Contemporaneously, `Lake Area', `Vegetation' and `Scrub Land' have decreased by 121.62 km², 96.05 km² and 80.29 km² respectively. This study also analyzes five major driving force variables of socio-economic and climatological factors triggering LULC changes through a bivariate logistic regression model. The outcome gives credible relative operating characteristics (ROC) value of 0.76 that indicate goodness fit of logistic regression model. In addition, independent variables like distance to drainage network and average annual rainfall have negative regression coefficient values that represent decreased rate of dependent variable (changed LULC) whereas independent variables (population density, distance to road and distance to railway) have positive regression coefficient indicates increased rate of changed LULC . Results from this study will be crucial for planning and restoration of this vital lake water body that has major implications over the society and environment at large.