Continuity of Earth Radiation Budget Observations

Earth's climate is determined by the exchange of radiant energy between the Sun, Earth and space. The absorbed solar radiation at the top-of-atmosphere (TOA) fuels the climate system, providing the energy required for atmospheric and oceanic motions. Earth's radiation budget (ERB) involves a balance between how much solar energy Earth absorbs and how much terrestrial thermal infrared radiation is emitted to space. Because of its critical role in climate, continuous monitoring of the ERB is necessary for improved understanding and prediction of climate variability and change. NASA's long history in observing the TOA ERB is acknowledged in the 2007 and 2013 reports of the IPCC (IPCC 2007, 2013), the 2007 NRC Decadal Survey (NRC 2007), and the GCOS implementation plan of the WMO (GCOS 2016). A key reason for NASA's success in this area is due to its support of the CERES Project and its predecessor, ERBE. During ERBE, the TOA ERB was observed using both scanner and nonscanner broadband instruments. The CERES project consists of six scanner instruments flying alongside high-resolution spectral imagers (MODIS, VIIRS) in morning and afternoon sun-synchronous orbits. In addition to extending the ERBE TOA radiation budget record, CERES also provides observations of Earth's surface radiation budget with unprecedented accuracy. Here we assess the likelihood of a measurement gap in the ERB record. We show that unless a follow-on ERB instrument to the last available CERES copy (FM6) is built and launched, there is a significant risk of a measurement gap in the ERB record by the mid-2020s. A gap is of concern not only because the ERB would not be monitored during the gap period but also because it would be exceedingly difficult to tie the records before and after the gap together with sufficient accuracy for climate analyses. While ERB instruments are highly stable temporally, they lack the absolute accuracy needed to bridge a gap. Consequently, there is a requirement that successive satellite missions flying ERB instruments must overlap with one another for at least one year. We also discuss the tremendous challenges associated with alternate observing systems to CERES-like scanner instruments proposed recently to extend the ERB record (e.g., nonscanner broadband instruments on small satellites).