High carbon losses due to recent cropland expansion in the United States

Land conversion for agriculture in the United States has reached record highs in recent years. From 2008 to 2012 nearly 30,000 square kilometers of previously un-cultivated land were converted to agricultural land use with much of this expansion occurring on grasslands (77%) and shrublands (8%). To understand the effects of this conversion on global C cycling, we created novel, spatially explicit biomass maps for these biomes by combining existing satellite data products with models derived from field measurements. We then estimated changes in existing C stocks by combining our derived data with existing Landsat-scale data on land cover, land conversion, forest biomass and soil organic carbon (C) stocks. We find that conversion results in annual C losses of approximately 25 Tg C from US terrestrial ecosystems. Nationwide, roughly 80% of total emissions result from committed soil organic C losses. While biomass losses from expansion into forests and wetlands are disproportionately high per unit area, the vast majority of C losses occurred in grassland ecosystems, with grassland roots representing close to 70% of total biomass losses across all biomes. C losses are partially offset each year by agricultural abandonment which we estimate could sequester as much as 15 Tg C, annually. Taken together, we find that US agricultural expansion results in net annual emissions of 10 Tg C which is nearly 30% of emissions from existing US croplands. Our estimate is comparable to a recent analogous estimate for conversion of the Brazilian Cerrado and is equivalent to 10% of annual C losses from pantropical deforestation, suggesting that the effects of US cropland expansion could be globally significant.