Agricultural response to changes in water availability and temperature in the coterminous U.S.

Future changes in temperature and water availability will significantly affect agricultural systems in the United States. We construct a new weighted county-level panel dataset for the coterminous United States to estimate the impact of temperature and water availability on agricultural health using multivariate fixed-effects panel regression models. Results show clear non-linearities in the impacts of future changes in temperature, precipitation, deficit and soil moisture on corn, wheat and soy. This research lays the groundwork for future analyses estimating non-linearities in ecosystem response to changes in temperature and water availability as well as for the exploration of regional variations in exposure to these changes.