Co-production of Snow Projections for a Study of Snow Persistence Projections for the American Wolverine Gulo gulo

This presentation will describe the efforts of climate scientists to work with the US Fish and Wildlife Service (FWS) to provide analysis of future snow persistence to support a Species Status Assessment (SSA) for the American wolverine (Gulo gulo), under the Endangered Species Act (ESA). The project has been a research to application (R2A) study, aimed directly at the FWS needs, and in regular collaboration with FWS Region 6 personnel to discuss and agree on the choice downscaled projections to represent a range of plausible futures, and other methodological choices including use of high resolution (250m) physical hydrology modeling. FWS sought improved information on which to base a court-ordered re-evaluation of the conclusions of a previous SSA, due in 12 months, necessitating a quick turn-around for the snow research. The goal was to improve upon the the previous evaluation of snow persistence, both in understanding of the range of uncertainty and by using new snow modeling at spatial scales intended to be more relevant to both physical snowpack processes and to making inferences about potential wolverine denning opportunity. This project was embedded both in a specific legal/regulatory process and also in a broader FWS interest in building body of science for snow-dependent species that might support other ESA processes. Results of the co-production included new scientific questions and analytic approaches that arose from the interaction between climate scientists and ecologists. The fine spatial scales of the analysis compared to previous work allowed new hypotheses to be articulated, but also led to significant issues in the interpretation of the snow model output. This presentation will discuss key issues that arose in the collaboration between scientists and the managers developing the SSA, including the managing the independence of the science while remaining in a co-production mode, the challenges of the rapid time frame, and the challenges transitioning findings from a more academic and research framework to the demands of applied resource management.