Investigating mitigation opportunities in coastal wetlands losses of Galveston Bay due to sea level rise

As the climate changes over the course of the future, sea level is predicted to rise at an accelerated rate. Coastal wetlands will be affected by the relative sea level rise at each specific area. This study utilized GIS data produced by the Sea Level Affecting Marshes Model (SLAMM) to determine the response of coastal wetlands along the west coast of Galveston Bay to sea level rise. Spatial analysis was conducted using the data from SLAMM along with current and future projected land use along the west coast. Wetland area was lost under all sea level rise scenarios through 2100 when considering land use and development, with significant amounts lost under future development plans. Mitigation methods were evaluated to determine which combinations would allow maintenance of wetland stocks as sea level rises and development along the coast continues. This study suggested a combination of hard protection structures and wetland creation methods to maintain a balance between conservation of the wetland ecosystem and increased demands for land for development along the western coast of the Bay.