The Pliocene Horcón Formation, Central Chile: a case study of earthquake-induced landslide susceptibility

Stability slope analysis is typically focused on modeling using cohesion and friction angle parameters but in earthquake-induced landslides, susceptibility is correlated more to lithological and stratigraphic parameters. In sedimentary deposits whose cohesion and diagenesis are very low, the risk of landslides increases. The Horcón Formation, which crops out continuously along cliffs in Central Chile between 32.5° and 33°S, is a Miocene-Pliocene well preserved, horizontally stratified unit composed of marine strata which overlies Paleozoic-Mesozoic igneous basement. During the Quaternary, the sequence was tectonically uplifted 80 meters and covered by unconsolidated eolian deposits. Given that Seismotectonic and Barrier-Asperity models suggest the occurrence of a forthcoming megathrust earthquake in a segment which includes this area, the Horcón Formation constitutes a good case study to characterize the susceptibility of this type of sediment for mass movements triggered by earthquakes. Field mapping, stratigraphic and sedimentological studies, including petrographic analyses to determine lithological composition and paragenesis of diagenetic events, have been carried out along with limited gravimetric profiling and CPTU drill tests. High resolution digital elevation modeling has also been applied. This work has led to the recognition of a shallow marine lithofacies association composed of weakly lithified fossiliferous and bioturbated medium to fine grained litharenite, mudstone, and fine conglomerate. The low grade of diagenesis in the sedimentary deposits was in response to a short period of burial and a subsequent accelerated uplift evidenced along the coast of Chile during the Quaternary. We have generated a predictive model of landslide susceptibility for the Horcón Formation and for the overlying Quaternary eolian deposits incorporating variables such as composition and diagenesis of lithofacies, slope, structures, weathering and landcover. The model has significant implications for land use planning and building construction where this type of sediments occurs.