High-Precision, Continuous GPS Data Reveals Seasonal Groundwater Influence on the Deformation of the Salmon Falls Landslide, a Slow-Moving, Rotational Feature in Central Idaho

The development of predictive tools for landslide initiation and deformation serve both the natural hazard and geomorphic communities. Founded on both field observations and physical laws, these tools require a mechanistic understanding of the connection between forcing and response. Water has a well-documented influence on slope stability, impacting both soil plasticity and pore water pressure. High precision, high frequency GPS measurements of deformation paired with similar frequency water table measurements enable new insight into the lag and sensitivity present in the coupled hillslope-groundwater system, especially in the rotational domain, which is underrepresented in current literature. Our study explores the influence of groundwater on a slow-moving, deep-seated, rotational slide in southern Idaho using daily, mm precision GPS positions and contemporaneous groundwater levels measurements in adjacent wells, lakes, and streams. Seven semi-permanent GPS stations are spatially distributed across the slide and record three-dimensional velocities up to 11 cm/yr, which compare well with historical measurements from the early 2000's. Water level loggers are located in a rough cross-section through the study area and documents rises in water level during spring 2017 and a subsequent 1.5m drop in the following summer. We hypothesize a correlation of groundwater levels and landslide velocity, which varies seasonally and spatially across the body of the slide. We will present whether deformation is spatially contemporaneous or initiate in one region and propagates down-feature. We will also discuss whether temporal lag exists between water level change and deformation and if hysteresis complicates correlation between forcing and response. Results will bolster the breadth of case-studies available for this landslide morphology and provide regional land managers with predictors for increased landslide activity and associated hazards, such as rockfall or landslide dam outburst events. The data from this study will also be integrated into a newly developed field-education module under the GETSI curriculum project. Our project provides a core dataset for how how-precision GPS positioning can be applied to solve societally relevant issues such as hazard prediction or early warning systems.