Effects of Unsteady River Discharge on Delta Progradation: A Modelling Perspective

Rivers in the world are characterized with natural and human-induced variability in their discharges regardless of their scales and geographic locations. While previous studies have established that unsteady river discharge would impact on delta morphology, its direct morphological effects remain hitherto elusive. As a large-scale direct human regulation of river discharge at one of the largest rivers in the world, water and sediment regulation scheme (WSRS) has been implemented since 2002 at Xiaolangdi Reservoir to generate artificial flood pulses to mitigate siltation in the lower reaches of the Yellow River during wet seasons, and maintain base flow during dry seasons. In this study, analyses based on remote sensing images along with the relevant hydrographic data of the Yellow River Delta subject to the WSRS verified that the fluctuating delta progradation is highly correlated with the unsteady river discharge. To further explore the morphological effects of unsteady river discharge, numerical simulations with realistic unsteady river discharge scenarios schematized using four Indicators of Hydrologic Alteration (IHA) parameters were performed in Delft3D, and further used to calibrate a modified box model that incorporated unsteady river discharge. While the overall trends of delta progradation and the ultimate delta area created were found to be similar between the unsteady river discharge scenarios and their corresponding constant discharge scenarios, the nuances of intermittent zig-zag variation in natural delta area were well reproduced in model simulations assuming unsteady river discharge scenarios. When confounding factors such as waves and variable sediment capture ratio were taken into consideration, model simulations for unsteady river discharge scenarios exhibit significant deviations from constant discharge scenarios. In addition, decadal-scale delta progradation predictions suggested the potential existence of a tipping point in the delta area growth trajectory beyond which the delta area declines during periods of low discharge. The implications of the modeling results for delta restoration, e.g., the WSRS in the Yellow River and artificial channel diversions in the Mississippi Delta, were also discussed.