Are all temperate lakes eutrophying in a warmer world?

Freshwater lakes are at risk of eutrophication due to climate change and intensification of human activities on the planet. In relatively undisturbed areas of the temperate forest biome, lakes are "sentinels" of the effects of rising temperatures. We hypothesise that rising temperatures are driving a shift from nutrient-poor oligotrophic states to nutrient-rich eutrophic states. To test this hypothesis, we examined a time series of satellite based chlorophyll-a (a proxy of algal biomass) of 12,000+ lakes over 30 years in the Canadian portion of the Laurentian Great Lakes basin. From the time series, non-stationary trends (detected by Mann-Kendall analysis) and stationary cycles (revealed through Morlet wavelet analysis) were removed, and the standard deviation (SD) of the remaining residuals was used as an indicator of lake stability. Four classes of lake stability were identified: (1) stable (SD is consistently low); (2) destabilizing (SD increases over time); (3) unstable (SD is consistently high); and (4) stabilizing lakes (SD decreases over time). Stable lakes were either oligotrophic or eutrophic indicating the presence of two stable states in the region. Destabilizing lakes were shifting from oligotrophic to lakes with a higher trophic status (indicating eutrophication), unstable lakes were mostly mesotrophic, and stabilizing lakes were shifting from eutrophic to the lakes with lower trophic status (indicating oligotrophication). In contrast to common expectations, while many lakes (2142) were shifting from oligotrophic to eutrophic states, more lakes (3199) were showing the opposite trend and shifting from eutrophic to oligotrophic states. This finding reveals a complexity of lake responses to rising temperatures and the need to improve understanding of why some lakes shift while others do not. Future work is focused on exploring the interactive effects of global, regional, and local drivers of lake trophic states.