Intereruptive deformation at Three Sisters volcano, Oregon, USA: a strategy for traking volume changes through coupled hydraulic-viscoelastic modeling

The Three Sisters volcanic region Oregon (USA) is one of the most active volcanic areas in the Cascade Range and is densely populated with eruptive vents. An extensive area just west of South Sister volcano has been actively uplifting since about 1998. InSAR data from 1992 through 2001 showed an uplift rate in the area of 3-4 cm/yr. Then the deformation rate considerably decreased between 2004 and 2006 as shown by both InSAR and continuous GPS measurements. Once magmatic system geometry and location are determined, a linear inversion of all GPS and InSAR data available is performed in order to estimate the volume changes of the source along the analyzed time interval. For doing so, we applied a technique based on the Truncated Singular Value Decomposition (TSVD) of the Green's function matrix representing the linear inversion. Here, we develop a strategy to provide a cut-off for truncation removing the smallest singular values without too much loose of data resolution against the stability of the method. Furthermore, the strategy will give us a quantification of the uncertainty of the volume change time series. The strength of the methodology resides in allowing the joint inversion of InSAR measurements from multiple tracks with different look angles and three component GPS measurements from multiple sites.Finally, we analyze the temporal behavior of the source volume changes using a new analytical model that describes the process of injecting magma into a reservoir surrounded by a viscoelastic shell. This dynamic model is based on Hagen-Poiseuille flow through a vertical conduit that leads to an increase in pressure within a spherical reservoir and time-dependent surface deformation. The volume time series are compared to predictions from the dynamic model to constrain model parameters, namely characteristic Poiseuille and Maxwell time scales, inlet and outlet injection pressure, and source and shell geometries. The modeling approach used here could be used to develop a mathematically rigorous strategy for including time-series deformation data in the interpretation of volcanic unrest.