Seismic Source Scaling and Characteristics of Six North Korean Underground Nuclear Explosions

We estimate the range of yields and source depths for the six North Korean underground nuclear explosions in 2006, 2009, 2013, 2016 (January and September), and 2017, based on regional seismic observations in South Korea and China. Seismic data used in this study are from three seismo-acoustic stations, BRDAR, CHNAR, and KSGAR, cooperatively operated by SMU and KIGAM, the KSRS seismic array operated by the Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty Organization, and MDJ, a station in the Global Seismographic Network. We calculate spectral ratios for event pairs using seismograms from the six explosions observed along the same paths and at the same receivers. These relative seismic source scaling spectra for Pn, Pg, Sn, and surface wave windows provide a basis for a grid search source solution that estimates source yield and depth for each event based on both the modified Mueller and Murphy (1971; MM71) and Denny and Johnson (1991; DJ91) source models. The grid search is used to identify the best-fit empirical spectral ratios subject to the source models by minimizing the goodness-of-fit (GOF) in the frequency range of 0.5-15 Hz. For all cases, the DJ91 model produces higher ratios of depth and yield than MM71. These initial results include significant trade-offs between depth and yield in all cases. In order to better take the effect of source depth into account, a modified grid search was implemented that includes the propagation effects for different source depths by including reflectivity Greens functions in the grid search procedure. This revision reduces the trade-offs between depth and yield, results in better model fits to frequencies as high as 15 Hz, and GOF values smaller than those where the depth effects on the Greens functions were ignored. The depth and yield estimates for all six explosions using this new procedure will be presented.