The deadly Morelos-Puebla, Mexico Intraslab Earthquake of 19 September 2017 (Mw7.1): Was the Earthquake Unexpected and Were the Ground Motions and Damage Pattern in Mexico City Abnormal?

On 19 September 2017, thirty two years after the 1985 Michoacan interplate earthquake (Mw8.0), the city was once again devastated but this time by a Mw7.1 intraslab earthquake. The 2017 earthquake was located near the border of the states of Morelos and Puebla (18.410N, -98.710E; H=57 km), to SSE of Mexico City, at a hypocentral distance of about 127 km. It caused great panic in Mexico City, collapse of 44 buildings, and severely damaged many others. More than 200 persons were killed in the city. It was the second most destructive earthquake in the history of Mexico City, next only to the 1985 earthquake. A strong-motion station at CU located on basalt lava flows on main campus UNAM has been in continuous operation since 1964. PGA of 59 gal at CU during the 2017 earthquake is the largest ever, two times greater than that recorded during the 1985 earthquake (29 gal). The 2017 earthquake raised questions that are critical in fathoming the seismic vulnerability of the city and in its reconstruction. Was such an intraslab earthquake (Mw 7 at a hypocentral distance of 127 km) unexpected? Were the recorded ground motions in the city unusually high for such an earthquake? Why did the damage pattern during the earthquake differ from that observed during the 1985 earthquake? The earthquake was the closest M>5 intraslab earthquake to Mexico City ever recorded. However, Mw 5.9 events have occurred in recent years in the vicinity of the 2017 earthquake (R 145 km). Three Mw≥6.9 earthquakes have occurred since 1964 in the distance range 184-225 km. Thus, Mw and R of the earthquake was not surprising. However, a comparison of Fourier acceleration spectra at CU of 10 intraslab earthquakes with largest PGA, reduced to a common distance of R=127 km, shows that the amplitudes of the 2017 events were abnormally high in 1-2s range. Spectra of intraslab events at CU are enriched at higher frequencies relative to interplate ones because of closer distance, greater depth and higher stress drop. It follows that, for this earthquake, the sites in the city with 1-2s natural period (the transition zone) would be especially vulnerable. Observed damage in the city closely follows this pattern: peak in the response spectra occurs between 1 and 2 s and coincides with sites which have 1 to 2 s natural period and zone of collapsed buildings.